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99% of on-chain traders lose money, and most of it is lost to coins that were checkable in thirty seconds. Every number below is on the Trady Token Page — this guide is what the numbers mean. Rule zero: think like a rug puller. Every launch is designed by someone; your job is to figure out whether it was designed to trade or designed to drain.

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The variables and their thresholds

These are field heuristics, not laws — calibrate with experience. But when several fire at once, walk.

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Top holders

  • Any single holder above ~3.5% of supply (excluding the LP) is a red flag. The pool address often shows up as the top “holder” — it isn’t a trader; Trady labels it.
  • Ten wallets each holding 2–3% that appeared in the same minute is worse than one whale — that’s a bundle wearing a disguise.

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Volume vs market cap

  • Volume under ~80% of market cap on a young token — suspect. Fresh coins with real attention churn their mcap in volume many times over.
  • Huge volume with barely-moving holders count = wash trading.

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Fees vs volume

  • Real volume produces proportional fees (~1% of volume near bonding). A chart showing $2M “volume” that generated pocket-change fees is painted. Rule of thumb from the trenches: at ~15k mcap you want to see >0.5 SOL in fees.

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Bundles

  • More than ~15% of supply in connected wallets — the Bubblemaps tab makes clusters visible: same creation window, funded from one CEX account, transfers between each other.
  • Bundle ≠ automatic scam — teams, MMs, and committed insiders bundle too. Bundle + fresh wallets + fake socials = scam. Bundle + doxxed team + organic community = judgment call.

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Fresh wallets & snipers

  • A holder list stacked with zero-history wallets on a brand-new token — avoid.
  • Snipers % shows first-block buyers. Heavy sniper supply that hasn’t sold yet is an overhang waiting for your entry.

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Dev history

  • Dev Tokens tab shows every previous launch by this deployer. Five dead tokens in a month tells you exactly how this one ends. First-time dev is unknown risk; serial rugger is known risk.

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Chart patterns

  • Staircase candles (identical buys at intervals), only-huge-candles, up-only on low volume with few holders — bot-painted or honeypot-bait. Real charts breathe in both directions.

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Contract basics

  • Mint authority and freeze authority disabled, LP locked or burned — table stakes, and the Security Audit strip checks them automatically. Major launchpads handle this by default; anything external gets checked.

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The social layer

  • Engagement from zero-history accounts, AI-generated shill replies, “girl explains why this is the next DOGE” content — that’s marketing targeted at people who don’t check. You check.

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The 30-second routine

  1. Security Audit strip — green basics?
  2. Holders — top wallet ex-LP under 3.5%? fresh-wallet wall?
  3. Bubblemaps — connected supply under 15%?
  4. Dev Tokens — history?
  5. Trades tape — organic two-way flow?
  6. VOL/MC and fees — does the volume look paid-for?
Fail two or more → next coin. Opportunities are abundant — the next runner is already launching. Missing a 10x costs you nothing; catching a rug costs you the deposit that would’ve caught the next 10x.